In The News

Michael Kofman says, "In some respects, this is one war but two distinct campaigns. The first was to decide whether or not Ukraine would survive as an independent state -- and Russia lost that conflict decisively. . . . This second phase is about what territory that independent Ukrainian state will ultimately control, and that remains very much in contest."

Samuel Bendett says, “Russia's previous concerns about its dependence on imported technology and international processes for key domestic digital infrastructure are now in visceral focus as the Russian state is seeking to pivot to domestic technology to replace imported tech, while maintaining that Russia is not seeking to close itself off from the outside world.”

Samuel Bendett says “Putin’s “slow, grinding advance” across the Donbas region suited his nation’s  forces with their greater resources of soldiers and supplies.”

Michael Kofman says, “The overall military balance in this war still trends in Ukraine's favor, given manpower availability and access to extensive Western military support."

Michael Kofman says, “There are two areas where we overestimated Russian military performance. One was  in things that we could not have known until they attempted an operation on this scale.”

Samuel Bendett, says, “That ‘while loitering munitions are intended for “mass effect” — attrition at scale from repeated use of UAVs able to strike practically any target — we have not seen this so far.’”

Samuel Bendett says, “So I think what is happening right now is the major initiatives have stalled.”

Samuel Bendett says, “It’s likely that Orlan-10 represents a significant share of the pre-Feb 2022 Russian UAV [Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle] fleet - maybe up to a half.”

Michael Kofman says, “Artillery is very much the business of quantity the Russians are one of the largest artillery armies you can face.”

Michael Kofman says, “Just because you haven’t seen Russian cyberattacks or another form of retaliation against the United States in the war so far, doesn’t mean it won’t happen.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, “From the Russian point of view, it presents a real threat that their artillery can be taken out before it can even get in range to shoot.”

Samuel Bendett says, “This Orlan-10 refitting is relatively new, and there has not been additional information about Russian forces practicing with that combat Orlan-10 version apart from Zapad-2021 news. So it’s not clear what the level of competency is at this point.”

Michael Kofman says, “Ukrainians have also mined some of the land to funnel Russian forces onto the roads, where they are easier to target.”

Michael Kofman says, "I'm deeply skeptical of their prospects of conquering all of the Donbas.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The Ukrainian military had taken advantage of the fact that Russia did not control all the airspace and that it did not have persistent electronic warfare defences “with some very accurate and significant strikes”. But he added: “What is needed from their perspective is to do so on a much larger scale.”

Michael Kofman says, "As it stands, Russian options are shrinking the more they drag their feet, the further their ability to sustain the war deteriorates, and the worse their subsequent options."