In The News

Michael Kofman says, "I think we were never seriously asked how the war could look if the U.S. truly backed Ukraine."

Samuel Bendett says, “Of the two loitering munitions, it is the Lancet that has practically dominated Russian headlines and is discussed in large numbers as a key Russian capability — not the KYB.”

Samuel Bendett says, "As to their effectiveness, it's hard to judge that based on limited open-source evidence we get. Both sides want it and decry the lack of this technology in large numbers."

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “They can certainly shell the peninsula if they got close enough, but it would be very hard militarily to take it.”

Michael Kofman says, “The war is highly dependent on defense industrial production, and these are critical investments that the United States and ultimately Ukraine will benefit from, but the question is whether they were made too late to affect what could be decisive phases of the conflict this year.”

Michael Kofman says, “Wars typically tend to go on longer than people expect or hope, but especially interstate conflicts of this length. History tells us that wars which go on this long … are likely to become protracted, lasting several years.”

Samuel Bendett says, "This modified type of warhead can leave a lot of damage in its wake in a strike on a civilian energy installation, making repairs difficult and lengthy, thereby increasing the impact of each drone that gets through Ukrainian defenses."

Samuel Bendett writes, “On February 2, 2023, Russia’s Dmitry Rogozin—a former Roskosmos (space agency) director who has since reinvented himself as a frontline soldier in eastern Ukraine—announced on his Telegram channel that several Marker UGVs (uncrewed ground vehicles) have arrived in the Donbas.”

Samuel Bendett says, “If we gauge how important any given technology is to the Ukrainians based on how it’s discussed across the Russian Telegram ecosystem, then I would say it was rather important.”

Michael Kofman says that he believed Russia’s “force quality appears relatively low” and “can likely offer a stubborn defence, but [is] less liable to be suitable for offensive operations.”

Michael Kofman says, “I don’t think anyone can say with good confidence how much Russia has spent on the war."

Michael Kofman says that Bakhmut represents “a gateway” to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, both of which have been subject to recent Russian missile strikes .

Samuel Bendett says, “Russians and the Wagner mercenaries are throwing a lot of soldiers at the Ukrainians. They are trying to grind away at the Ukrainian defenses, and there is indication that in some parts of that front Russian pressure is having an effect.”

Samuel Bendett says, "Whether it was indeed a Tu-141 or another drone is less relevant than the fact that Ukraine is seeking to impose high costs on Russia by apparently launching drones deep inside Russian airspace to attack targets that are supposed to be secure."

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “I don’t think the Russians are planning an offensive” from around Zaporizhzhia.

Dmitry Gorenburg describes  Russia’s tactics around Vuhledar as “reconnaissance by force—probing and testing.”

Samuel Bendett says, "They aren't necessarily going to be ready for the very complicated environment of a Ukraine battle space."