In The News

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "Some Western commentators have suggested that this is related to some kind of effort by Prigozhin to position himself as a successor to Putin, but this is ludicrous. What is actually going on is an effort to increase influence among the top leadership—in other words, by appearing more useful to Putin.”

Samuel Bendett says, “This would be a first combat deployment for the Marker UGV, and yes, it wasn’t really tested in combat conditions before. It was tested in a rather controlled environment, even when it had to navigate autonomously through a forested environment in late 2021. There is of course a possibility of a classified series of tests that could have taken place, but as far as all info about this UGV, there was no real combat stress test.”

Samuel Bendett says, “What’s interesting is that Marker was always presented as a proof of concept, a flagship project for [general AI artificial intelligence] applications.”

Michael Kofman says, “Heading into 2023, Ukraine no longer has a manpower advantage and difficulties lie ahead.”

Samuel Bendett says, “When it comes to this war in Ukraine, it is truly the competent use of quadcopters for a variety of tasks, including for artillery and mortar units, that has really made this cheap, available, expendable (unmanned aerial vehicle), very lethal and very dangerous.”

Samuel Bendett says, “It appears that most of the existing Markers, 3 out of 5, will in fact be tested in Ukraine, and can be lost in combat. It also appears that Android Technology is actually ok with that, indicating a willingness to respond to the [Ministry of Defense] needs for improved weapons and tactics, and perhaps indicating that the company is working on other projects that can build on the Marker experience.”

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “The real challenge with giving the Ukrainians M1A1 tanks is not fuel but maintenance. Each system on the tank, from the turbine engine to the complex sights used by the gunner, is complex, requiring numerous intricate parts to function properly.”

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “I think this is significant. These are more complex, have higher firepower, more maneuverability than the tanks the Ukrainians have been using. And given the number of vehicles lost by both sides, this will bolster their maneuver forces.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Russia has a lot of volunteer efforts building small quadcopters and other small UAVs. For example, there was a recent state media article praising soldiers for putting together their own ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance] quadcopter. Compared to the overall Ukrainian effort, Russian efforts are probably still smaller in scale and some of these efforts started later than their Ukrainian counterparts.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Wagner mercenary group has rushed its soldiers, basically World War II style, against the Ukrainian positions and overwhelmed large parts of the Ukrainian defense forces in the Bakhmut. Wagner and the Russian claim to control a significant part of Bakhmut, in fact, they claim to control all of that.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, “A normal army structure is like a pyramid. There are very few generals, more colonels, and so on, the pyramid expands towards the base. And the Russian army began to look more like an oval, the base was removed from the pyramid. There are too many mid-level officers. They have no one to command. It got to the point that some of them only had warehouses with equipment under their control.”

Jeffrey Edmonds says if Ukraine can maintain and operate them properly, "they're great for the Ukrainian force," Edmonds said, explaining that "the whole reason tanks were created was to make a static situation fluid."

Jeffrey Edmonds says, "I think the Ukrainians want to, at some point, launch counteroffensives. And that's much more effective with heavy armor — as much as you can get."

Samuel Bendett says the idea of the AI-enabled combat robot is to "replace a soldier in dangerous missions, and to make missions more effective.”

Michael Kofman says, “The U.S. is making up the difference from its stockpiles, but that’s doubtfully a sustainable solution. It means the U.S. is taking on risk elsewhere.”

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “It is very evident that the Russians do not care about collateral damage when they are conducting these strikes against reportedly critical infrastructure. And there is certainly an aspect of this that the Russians want civilian casualties in an attempt to undermine the Ukraine ability to resist.”