In The News

Samuel Bendett says, "Not sure about Iranian UAVs, but I would assume some of them were not specifically designed for frigid temperatures considering where they operate now."

Michael Kofman says, “I think the main difference is that Ukrainian troops are better equipped to deal with the conditions.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Two main developments are going to impact future war. The proliferation and availability of combat drones for longer-ranged, more-sophisticated operations, and the absolute necessity to have cheap tactical drones for close-support operations."

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "Paradoxically, it's the side which is losing in a war that often gets to decide when it stops. Russia is losing in Ukraine, but the war likely will not end until the Kremlin chooses to stop fighting."

Samuel Bendett says, “Russia has two goals at this point. Number one is to stabilize the front so that its mobilized forces can be there to sort of plug the existing gaps and really sort of fill up the front with manpower that has been impacted over the first eight or nine months of this war. The second goal is to continue impacting the Ukrainian will to fight now that the winter is actually here.”

Samuel Bendett says, “As far as what kind of drones Iran can sell to both Armenia and Serbia - there are a number of options that include both the Shahed and Ababil models since both were used by Iranian proxies in the Middle East, and now Shahed has demonstrated its limited, but key, capacity in Ukraine.”

Michael Kofman says, "I think Ukraine does face a real challenge from a concerted Russian strike campaign that's focused on the electricity grid. I think it is taking a toll over time. Ukraine is able to manage it right now, fix blackouts. And most Ukrainians cities, I've seen are enacting electricity conservation. They're quite dark at night even though they have power."

Michael Kofman says, “Ammunition availability” was one of the “most determinative aspects of this war. If you burn through 9 million rounds, you cannot make them in a month. So the issue is what is the ammunition production rate and what can be mobilized?”

Michael Kofman says, "No military is properly prepared to deal with the deep strike and precision fire" that these weapons provide.

Samuel Bendett says, “In a swarm—just like in an insect swarm, in a bird swarm, in a school of fish—each drone thinks for itself, communicates with the others, and shares information about its position in a swarm, the environment that the swarm is in, potential threats coming at the swarm, and what to do about it, especially when it comes to changes in direction or changes in swarm composition.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says that Russia using a potential port for commercial purposes to avoid bans “could certainly happen as Russia is working hard on ways to circumvent sanctions.”

Samuel Bendett says that while the Russian military is likely leaning into new combat suits “given how many Russian soldiers were maimed and injured by munitions and shrapnel” in Ukraine, the widespread adoption of such high-tech (and high-cost) kits remains a substantial challenge.

Michael Kofman says that ammunition, for artillery and air defence, is “the most decisive factor.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "If you know that you're preparing to pull out, then it wouldn't make any sense to go through with the annexation."

Michael Kofman says, “As winter approaches, November and December in particular are difficult months to conduct offensives. Russian forces will seek to entrench for the winter, using the Dnieper (Dnipro River) as a natural defensive barrier in the south.”

Michael Kofman says, "All you have to do is look at a map, the problems are very obvious. Access to supplies by rail made a real difference in the Russian ability to sustain offensive operations."