In The News

Samuel Bendett says, “Controlling Crimea is essential if Russia wants to maintain its war effort and to keep Ukraine off balance and to maintain its positions in the territories it already captured.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says “While they can definitely hit targets from Novorossiysk, it’s farther away, so the more distant targets are out of reach. Plus, the number of missile carriers has been reduced somewhat with the elimination of the Kilo sub. So not a game-changer in terms of capability, but definitely a reduction.”

Michael Kofman says there’s “a realistic possibility of Ukrainian forces breaking through Russian lines,” as “the momentum has picked up and the dynamic has somewhat changed in the last couple of weeks.” But even he cautions that war “isn’t a parlor game where one can gamble and easily predict outcomes.”

Samuel Bendett says that he believes Russian forces had a limited number of these UAVs, with plans to significantly ramp up production in 2023.

Samuel Bendett says, “Ultimately the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un served to reinforce Russia’s alliances. Russia is taking significant measures to demonstrate to its allies around the world like Iran and China and North Korea that it is still a viable partner, and this meeting resulted in a potential transfer of a larger number of key artillery shells and munitions to the Russian military.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "While the specific strike will have an impact on [Black Sea Fleet] operations, the larger impact is cumulative. Overall, I see Russia's control over the Black Sea slipping gradually."

Michael Kofman says, "The operating conditions don't permit effective massing of forces, and the enablers aren't there to support it. If the Russian military is worn down and they have no additional reserves to throw into the fight, it could put the Russian forces in a precarious position."

Samuel Bendett says that Russia's defense systems are not geared toward identifying small drones.

Samuel Bendett says “USV tactics are constantly changing to inflict the most probable damage on Russian naval assets that also include stationary targets like bridges. So far, parts of Russia’s navy—such as those in Crimea—are adapting better to this threat than others.”

Samuel Bendett says, "The real impact of this ban on the Russian market mostly boils down to the jump in prices for existing and available Chinese drones in and components already in Russia."

Steven Wills says, “I think they've just lost all initiative,” referring to the Russian naval ambitions. “Whatever plans they originally had, they immediately abandoned them and they've gone into garrison, hunker down mode.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, “[The Ukrainians] know they're not going to destroy Black Sea Fleet headquarters with a drone. But by attacking every so often, they keep everyone kind of discombobulated and stressed.”

Samuel Bendett says, “We’re probably going to see more drones like Lancets used along the entire depth of the front and beyond.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The Russians have had time to dig in and prepare massive amounts of fortifications. The Russians have learned a lot from their mistakes last year, and they have learned a lot from the Ukrainian’s successes.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The general assessment of drones like TB2 is that they work well without sophisticated air and electronic warfare defenses arrayed against them.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Shahed strikes have become a relatively cheap way for the Russian military to stress Ukrainian defences and to force the Ukrainian military to expend valuable ammunition shooting them down.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The ultimate goal right now, largely influenced by Ukraine, is to make the interactions between the operator and the drone as efficient as possible.”