In The News

Samuel Bendett writes, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a significant asset in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Specifically, it has become a key data analysis tool that helps operators and warfighters make sense of the growing volume and amount of information generated by numerous systems, weapons, and soldiers in the field.

Samuel Bendett says that it is "entirely feasible" that Moscow would opt to use jammers and has done so prior to the war in Ukraine. But it is difficult to judge with limited evidence.

Samuel Bendett says, “Such claims should be scrutinized carefully given how much conflicting data is out there.”

: Samuel Bendett wrote on social media, “The reality is that Ukraine is constantly imposing high costs on the Russian Navy by launching small, cheap USVs against ships and port facilities. Defending against such attacks means constant state of awareness and high-levels of stress.”

Samuel Bendett says, "The cost of manufacturing and fielding these vehicles is considerably less — many magnitudes less — than the cost of trying to defend against them and just basic resource allocation in trying to interdict and destroy these assets."

Samuel Bendett says, "How do you defend a long bridge like that? Where do you place your defenses? Do you fly patrols around it? Do you install sensors on it all the time? Do you have maritime patrols all the time? It's difficult to properly and completely defend an asset as large as a bridge like that."

Samuel Bendett says that however, they would still be able to "do significant damage" and it may be that larger boats have been used without being detected, he said. Although there are sensors and cameras attached to the bridge, it is difficult to monitor the maritime and aerial environment surrounding it.

Samuel Bendett says "that however, they would still be able to "do significant damage" and it may be that larger boats have been used without being detected." Although there are sensors and cameras attached to the bridge, it is difficult to monitor the maritime and aerial environment surrounding it.

Samuel Bendett says, “We talked about the difficulties of Ukrainian counter offensive in the face of Russia’s growing defenses and their entrenched positions. Russia has had time to develop a lot of these defensive trenches that stretch for 100s of kilometers basically along the entirety of the front. We talked earlier that it would be difficult to storm these well-fortified positions.”

Samuel Bendett says, “We knew there would be some kind of government response; Putin and the Kremlin had to respond to the insurrection one way or another. There would have to be some type of internal investigation, and clearly, because it was demonstrated that all Wagner forces joined this insurrection, there has to be some kind of investigation into what actually transpired.”

"Providing cluster munitions to Ukraine, at this stage, could have a significant impact beyond what other capabilities might achieve,” says Michael Kofman.

"If Russia wants to do something covert with Iran, this is an advantageous location. It’s on the river that flows into the Volga, so you can bring parts by ship from Iran covertly," writes Samuel Bendett. 

Michael Kofman says that precision warfare can counter some advantages of mass: Ukraine was outnumbered 12 to one north of Kyiv. It can also complement mass. Software-based targeting saves around 15-30% in shells, according to sources familiar with the data. But what precision cannot do, is substitute for mass.  

Michael Kofman says, “I suspect the way Moscow hopes this will play out is the commanders will move to Belarus and then possibly decamp for operations in Africa. Meanwhile, they will try to get back Wagner’s heavy equipment, and then figure out how to use the rank and file that chooses to stay.”

Michael Kofman says “Prigozhin’s mutiny was ultimately a desperate act of someone who was cornered,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia Studies at Virginia-based research group CNA. “His options were narrowing as his bitter dispute intensified.”

Michael Kofman says, “I honestly think that Wagner probably did more damage to Russian aerospace forces in the past day than the Ukrainian offensive has done in the past three weeks.”