In The News

Michael Kofman says, “My impression is that these are both interrelated and concurrent offensives.”

Michael Kofman says, "This is a colossal Russian military intelligence failure, the fact that they did not see this build-up coming."

Samuel Bendett says, “A lot of data is still coming in, but from what we know already this has been a brilliant Ukrainian tactical move."

Samuel Bendett says, "Iran has been under U.S. sanctions for many decades and still developed its own domestic military industry, which is exemplified by a massive drone lineup that could be quite useful in modern war...Russia respects Iran for its ability to maintain defense and foreign policy and accomplish goals.”

Dmitry Gorenburg, says, “That Russian commanders would be reluctant to withdraw their forces from occupied territory — even in a bid to preserve those forces. This would be a “political black eye” for Moscow.”

Michael Kofman says, “Russian forces appear to have been spread thinly, and military leadership is unprepared despite earlier evidence of Ukrainian buildup, I think it’s fair to assess that Russia was caught by surprise with little in the way of reserves locally available.”

Samuel Bendett says, “There were currently no indications that Algeria is reconsidering its defence relations with Moscow.”

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “That CAST should not be seen as a direct arm of the Kremlin, although its researchers' views are generally consistent with the line being pushed by Moscow.”

Michael Kofman says, "To place the offensive in context, much of the front has become active with UA forces launching localized counter attacks around Kharkiv and Donbas."

Samuel Bendett says, “According to Russia’s Android Technology company, its Marker ground robotic testing platform will be able to carry up to 16 “kamikaze” quadrocopters to counter aerial drones, as well as a C-UAS laser system.”

Samuel Bendett says,” Russia has lost about 50 of its Orlan-10s in the war, but “whatever they lost could be a small portion of what’s flying,”

Michael Kofman says, "Those watching this battle from afar need to moderate their expectations about how fast the Ukrainians will be able to prosecute this offensive. The Russians have had time to entrench."

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "Russia is making efforts to conserve its stocks of precision-guided munitions. Initially, they didn't hold a lot back because they didn't seem to expect the war in Ukraine to last more than two or three weeks, and so they went for a kind of shock and awe strategy thinking they wouldn't have to sustain those kinds of expenditures. Now though, they've started using them more judiciously."

Samuel Bendett says, “The sinking of the Moskva cruiser may have sobered up the Russians to the challenges they are facing in the maritime domain, specifically considering that Ukrainians have a lot of missiles, a lot of weapons and systems that can reach the Russians.”

Samuel Bendett says, “They understand that they needed those drones yesterday in large quantities."

Samuel Bendett says, "HIMARS and Triple 7s are at the very top of that [list that Russian military leaders are focused on destroying. That is why Russia needs extra capabilities to identify a target and hit it very quickly after identification."