In The News

Samuel Bendett said, “The consequences, for Russian drone operators on the front line, include poor quality overall and significant technical issues, like FPVs not able to take to the air when out of the box on the frontlines. Sure, the Russians might build as many drones as the Ukrainians do, but how many Russian UAVs actually work?”

Samuel Bendett explained, “Adding [turtle tanks as a] type of protection to ground drones is a new trend, but not one that is surprising when the battlefields in Ukraine are filled with FPV drones and other uncrewed vehicles on the attack. We have already witnessed instances of attacks by FPVs on UGVs—both Russian and Ukrainian—so this type of defense was probably a matter of time.”

Decker Eveleth said, “Many nuclear experts spent about a decade arguing that missile defense was not cost effective and the DPRK would simply outbuild the shield when they got a program rolling. These concerns were dismissed, largely because people did not think the DPRK was capable of a program of that scale. And here we are.”

The Center for Naval Analysis, an institute in Washington, later warned the US government of escalating and enduring water tensions that could lead to local protests, potentially sparking violence worldwide and undermining US national interests.

Jonathan Schroden says, “The types of security forces that we were trying to build, which were relatively sophisticated and relied on advanced technology and electronics logistics systems, were just not within the general capacity of what Afghanistan would be able to use in sustainable ways.”

Ken Gause says, “If you're going to do something like this, you're probably going to have to get started early and spend not years but probably decades socializing this with the larger leadership.”

Ken Gause says that now, Kim is developing his nukes more with an eye to keeping them than trading them away, even if it means living under sanctions.

Jonathan Schroden says that Afghanistan and Pakistan “have a fraught relationship for well past the last few decades, and a lot of the issues there stem from the Durand Line, which is the sort of artificially drawn border between Afghanistan and Pakistan that was created by the British when they were a colonial empire in this region.“

Julian Waller says, “Rufo is very intentionally acting as a bridging actor between people to his right – in a variety of dimensions and different ideological segments – and the more institutional establishment world: the harder right of American politics.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "They tried something, it worked even better than they hoped, with the Moskva sinking," and then they said, 'Oh great! And let's build on that!' and they've been working on that for the last two years."

Ken Gause says, "If the Russians could actually accelerate the timeline" for North Korea to enhance its nuclear missile capabilities to target the U.S. and "hold U.S. cities hostage with their weapons," then the United States would feel it necessary to "deal with the situation."

Dmitry Gorenburg says that since Russia moved its warships further east, Ukraine’s air defenses now have more room to intercept sea-launched missiles targeting its cities and infrastructure.

Ken Gause says that Kim's message also signals Pyongyang could be "keeping its options open for engagement."

Ken Gause says that Moscow would be “willing to help” Pyongyang enhance its Hwasong-18 ICBMs.