In The News

Dmitry Gorenburg says that Ukraine's victory could come quicker if the West did provide additional weapons, instead of "deterring itself because of phantom fears that Russia would somehow escalate if Ukraine were given certain kinds of offensive weapons."

Samuel Bendett says, "Russia is getting experience in using technology that was put together during sanctions - whether or not Iran used indigenous or civilian components is less relevant than the fact that Russia now has cheap expendable drones that can fly for hundreds of kilometres."

Samuel Bendett says, “Well, his remarks are nothing new to millions of people who have been following different telegram channels that have been screaming about the deficiencies and problems and offering very frank critique of what the Russian forces were doing in Ukraine.”

Samuel Bendett says that the TB2 sales to Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are a clear indication that "these countries are looking to Turkey for a MALE (medium-altitude long-endurance) drone share of the market."

Samuel Bendett says, “I think it is important to recognize that this conflict is still not over and we are heading into a very harsh winter, with the Russian military digging in and preparing for long term warfare.”

Michael Kofman says, “I can see a range of possible outcomes. It will to some extent require some historical reflection.”

Samuel Bendett says that the pressure on the Russian forces in Crimea from the Ukrainian drone campaign “is working if [Aksyonov] has to say it publically on Russian state media.”

Michael Kofman says that artillery is a problem for both sides. Ukraine is firing about 90,000 rounds a month, and the U.S. is struggling to raise its monthly production from 14,000 to 20,000.

Michael Kofman compares last week's strikes on two Russian airfields to the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo on April 18, 1942.

Paul Schwartz says that Russian factories are increasing production, moving to multiple shifts and bringing additional capacity online.

War on the Rocks Podcast: Michael Kofman says, “Russians' military focus right now on more of a defensive strategy, entrenchment, reconstituting their forces.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The Russian Military Doctrine is the defining document that identifies the priorities and main directions for the development of the Russian Navy.”

Ken Gause says that North Korea launches missiles in part to pressure Washington and Seoul to engage with it and to make concessions such as lifting sanctions.

Samuel Bendett says, “It could indeed be the Tu-141 drone that Ukraine used before. We know it can fly long distances since at least one crashed in Croatia. A few of them may still be in flying conditions in the Ukrainian military.”

Samuel Bendett says that if the explosions were indeed a Ukrainian attack, the Tu-141 might well have been the weapon.

Samuel Bendett says, “Perhaps this points to some of the bigger problems within Russian air defense; maybe they’re not as safe and modern as they think. Whatever air defense assets are in Russia probably did not expect such an attack to be possible.”