In The News

Samuel Bendett says, “Russian state media is showing Uran-6 work to demonstrate that the country’s military is using modern, sophisticated equipment.”

Michael Kofman says, “Ammunition supplies would be critical to the final outcome in the battle for eastern Ukraine.”

Michael Kofman, says, The context in which a war occurs does much to affect its outcome.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Russian military despite its new tactics despite its better logistics it has been unable really to create this massive punch and destroy a large part of the Ukrainians defenses. “

Michael Kofman says, “In the early phases of the war, the bigger problem was the plan rather than the army, now we’re in a phase where we’re much more able to evaluate the Russian army.”

Samuel Plapinger writes, “Why are some insurgent groups more effective in combat than others? The existing scholarship on insurgent behavior tells us little about the diverse performances of nonstate armed actors in conflict.”

Jonathan Schroden says, The special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction (SIGAR) said in a recent report that the primary factor was the U.S. decision to withdraw military forces and contractors through the U.S.-Taliban agreement under Trump and the withdrawal announcement by Biden. ”He disagrees because the six main factors listed in the report are all equally important.”

Michael Kofman says, “Russia is making fitful but incremental gains, and Ukraine’s position in the Donbas is more precarious than it once seemed.”

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “I wouldn’t say that’s a game-changer, I think the Russians will feel it. But it’s not going to suddenly reverse Russian gains.”

Michael Kofman says, "In some respects, this is one war but two distinct campaigns. The first was to decide whether or not Ukraine would survive as an independent state -- and Russia lost that conflict decisively. . . . This second phase is about what territory that independent Ukrainian state will ultimately control, and that remains very much in contest."

Samuel Bendett says, “Russia's previous concerns about its dependence on imported technology and international processes for key domestic digital infrastructure are now in visceral focus as the Russian state is seeking to pivot to domestic technology to replace imported tech, while maintaining that Russia is not seeking to close itself off from the outside world.”

Samuel Bendett says “Putin’s “slow, grinding advance” across the Donbas region suited his nation’s  forces with their greater resources of soldiers and supplies.”

Michael Kofman says, “The overall military balance in this war still trends in Ukraine's favor, given manpower availability and access to extensive Western military support."

Michael Kofman says, “There are two areas where we overestimated Russian military performance. One was  in things that we could not have known until they attempted an operation on this scale.”

Samuel Bendett, says, “That ‘while loitering munitions are intended for “mass effect” — attrition at scale from repeated use of UAVs able to strike practically any target — we have not seen this so far.’”

Kevin Pollpeter says, “The two countries’ space cooperation, including in the military realm, has become inextricable since 2018 and works against U.S. interests, I don’t think we can separate China and Russia. I just don’t think that’s possible.”