In The News

Dmitry Gorenburg says, “Russia will probably use the additional forces in an effort to prop up units in Ukraine that already have suffered heavy combat losses, rather than attempting to build new units to deploy,”

Elizabeth Wishnick says, “We previously misunderstood what no limits means. It didn’t mean that there were no parameters to this partnership. It was a way for the Chinese officials found to avoid discussing the prospect of an alliance.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Ukrainians were sighted by the Russian Military massing forces, possibly preparing to press the Russians even further.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, “I think it does become somewhat harder for the Ukrainians going forward. As the area Russia is defending shrinks, its ratio of forces to territory should rise.”

Elizabeth Wishnick says, “With Russia under pressure on the battlefield, Xi might feel compelled to express some greater rhetorical support for Russia, or at least to provide some additional criticism of Nato and the US.”

Jonathan Schroden says that the Taliban have used their newly acquired fleet of helicopters in parades and other shows of force.

Michael Kofman says, “Vladimir Putin certainly has the will to continue this war, but he has been largely operating under the illusion that the Russian military was winning and would eventually win."

Michael Kofman says, “My impression is that these are both interrelated and concurrent offensives.”

Michael Kofman says, "This is a colossal Russian military intelligence failure, the fact that they did not see this build-up coming."

Ken Gause says, “North Korea might have made its intent to use nuclear weapons official to bolster its stance against Seoul's "decapitation strategy" aimed at Pyongyang leadership.”

Elizabeth Lee, Jonathan Schroden & Heather Wolters write, “Special operations forces (SOF) are at an inflection point. Operationally, they are rebalancing from an overwhelming focus on countering terrorist groups to a mix of that mission and others designed to support the military’s new emphasis on integrated deterrence of China.”

Samuel Bendett says, “A lot of data is still coming in, but from what we know already this has been a brilliant Ukrainian tactical move."

Samuel Bendett says, "Iran has been under U.S. sanctions for many decades and still developed its own domestic military industry, which is exemplified by a massive drone lineup that could be quite useful in modern war...Russia respects Iran for its ability to maintain defense and foreign policy and accomplish goals.”

Dmitry Gorenburg, says, “That Russian commanders would be reluctant to withdraw their forces from occupied territory — even in a bid to preserve those forces. This would be a “political black eye” for Moscow.”

Michael Kofman says, “Russian forces appear to have been spread thinly, and military leadership is unprepared despite earlier evidence of Ukrainian buildup, I think it’s fair to assess that Russia was caught by surprise with little in the way of reserves locally available.”

Samuel Bendett says, “There were currently no indications that Algeria is reconsidering its defence relations with Moscow.”