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AI and Autonomous Technologies in the War in Ukraine

/reports/2023/10/ai-and-autonomous-technologies-in-the-war-in-ukraine

A survey of artificial intelligence in the war in Ukraine finds AI use has had a limited effect on escalation, but this may change with extensive use of AI.

accelerating investment into research and development of AI and autonomous technologies. Progress in these fields promises to reduce risk to deployed forces, minimize the cognitive and physical burden ... and capabilities for international security, strategic stability, and conflict dynamics. Reports about the use of AI and autonomous technologies in the war in Ukraine, although far from comprehensive, allow us

NSS Event September 23 2022

/reports/2023/05/nss-event-september-23-2022

The Russia-Ukraine war is a proving ground for combat tactics for commercial drones and UAVs, an expert panel with Bendett told CNA’s National Security Seminar.

commercially available drones for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and support of combat and information operations. The war has become a proving ground for the development of tactics, techniques ... . Ms. Greenwood has thus far documented 767 incidents of commercial drone use in the war in a publicly available database for future research and inquiry. Drawing on research on the international

PRC Economic Activity in the Arctic

/reports/2022/03/prc-economic-activity-in-the-arctic

On March 14, 2022, CNA hosted a National Security Seminar on Arctic investment and economic activity by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

and the potential for further investments in both natural resource extraction efforts and international trade flows through the region. Mr. Rosen and Ms. Holz discussed a recent CNA project on Arctic foreign ... to be critical for three major strategic goals: sustaining PRC economic development, defending national sovereignty, and reforming the global system to align with PRC interests. She noted that while

North Korea A Case Study of Asymmetric Relations

/reports/2021/10/north-korea-a-case-study-of-asymmetric-relations

Examining North Korea as a case study for asymmetric relations and the issue of its nuclear weapons development as the threat to status quo in the international order.

North Korea A Case Study of Asymmetric Relations North Korea: A Case Study of Asymmetric Relations Examining North Korea as a case study for asymmetric relations and the issue of its nuclear weapons development as the threat to status quo in the international order. Asymmetry between the United States and less powerful adversaries creates unique challenges not easily addressed by traditional international security policy precepts. Deterrence and compellence become harder to achieve because asymmetrically weaker powers often have greater interests at stake in bilateral and regional disputes

The Psychology of Disinformation Case Studies

/reports/2021/10/the-psychology-of-disinformation-case-studies

The absorption and spread of disinformation is a pervasive phenomenon across a wide variety of topics and media. Most disinformation research focuses on the source (who created it?) and the environment in which it exists (what platform/medium transmits the information?). Recognizing that disinformation primarily works in an individual person’s mind, this report describes four normal, routine psychological mechanisms that are associated with the absorption and spread of disinformation. We then describe real-world case studies—focusing on activities linked to COVID-19, and to campaigns coordinated by US adversaries including Russia, China, and Iran—to illustrate the way these mechanisms can be manipulated to aid the spread disinformation. The report concludes with multi-pronged recommendations that DOD can use to address the vulnerabilities associated with these psychological mechanisms so as prevent the spread of disinformation and protect both US servicemembers and the country.

that controlling the information space, including domestic and international narratives, promotes their national interests. For example, in 2013, the Russian chief of the General Staff, Valeriy Gerasimov, stated that the development of information weapons had the ability to reduce an adversary’s combat potential. Also, in 2013, Chinese president Xi Jinping stated that the use of innovative techniques

Artificial Intelligence in Russia Issue 18

/reports/2021/01/artificial-intelligence-in-russia-issue-18

This report, the eighteenth in a series of biweekly updates, is part of an effort by CNA to provide timely, accurate, and relevant information and analysis of the field of civilian and military artificial intelligence (AI) in Russia and, in particular, how Russia is applying AI to its military capabilities. It relies on Russian-language open source material.

Developments International Collaboration Article: General Staff Journal Discusses Military AI, AI in Nuclear Weapons Spotlight: S-500 Prometey The following preview shows the first item in this issue: 1. Russian government develops initial list of AI projects for implementation In December, the Russian Ministry of Digital Development released a preliminary list of AI projects

Becker Testimony

/reports/2019/10/becker-testimony

Prepared Testimony by Jeffrey D. Becker Research Program Director, Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, CNA To the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation

Asia and Africa. To be sure, Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) had been involved in overseas port development projects before Xi’s announcement of MSR in 2013. However, MSR has certainly ... News-Record’s list of the top 250 international contractors as of 2018.2 According to People’s Republic of China (PRC) Vice Minister of Transportation Liu Xiaoming, “China [has] invested and constructed

State of Russian Chinese Defense Cooperation

/reports/2018/08/state-of-russian-chinese-defense-cooperation

In this CNA Occasional Paper, Russian East Asia expert Vasily Kashin examines the current state of Russian-Chinese defense and security cooperation, Russia’s approach to developing it, and the possible outcomes of a further Russia-China rapprochement. He highlights the historical antecedents to the unprecedently long period of close ties between the two countries, focusing on the mutual advantages derived by both countries from defense industrial cooperation. The paper describes the gradually depending nature of bilateral military cooperation across a number of domains, including arms sales and joint exercises. The paper also addresses Russia’s evolving views on China’s increasing global role and the potential for an even closer Russia-China strategic alliance in the future, concluding that although the two countries are not ready for Western-style cooperation in defense technology, they are gradually moving toward a security partnership characterized by greater integration and interdependence.

Chinese development. Historical arguments have always played a prominent role in Russian-Chinese relations, and are well known to the bureaucrats who manage the relations on both sides. For them ... in both Moscow and Beijing. It has been the longest and most successful period of cooperation yet, and can have profound consequences for international politics. Vasily Kashin /reports/2018/08

China's Party Congress Report Highlights New Challenges

/our-media/indepth/2022/10/chinas-party-congress-report-highlights-new-challenges

Xi Jinping’s report celebrated China’s recent accomplishments but warned of new challenges from the United States and global economic conditions.

in the report paint a somewhat dark picture: International developments pose “a series of immense risks and challenges.” In an oblique but clear reference to the United States, Xi Jinping reported that China faces “drastic changes in the international landscape, especially external attempts to blackmail, contain, blockade, and exert maximum pressure on China…” “The global economic recovery ... they have little control pose both direct and indirect risks to their ambitions. Is “peace and development” as “the keynote of the times” fading? In addition, the report to the congress hedges on two

Belt and Road Initiative 3.0: Mixed Messages from Beijing

/our-media/indepth/2023/10/belt-and-road-3.0

Belt and Road Initiative 10-year anniversary forum promoted a leaner, greener, “smarter” Belt and Road. But Putin’s prominent role highlighted global divisions.

China Studies Program and an expert on Russian-Chinese relations. At the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on October 17–18, 2023, Xi Jinping sought to promote a leaner but “smarter” and greener Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and to reinforce China’s role as a leader in global economic development. Xi also used the forum to draw a contrast between his vision of economic ... at the forum undermined Xi’s interdependence message, highlighting instead the fracturing of the international community over conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. The Third Belt and Road Forum was meant