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Russia and the Global Nuclear Order

/reports/2024/03/russia-and-the-global-nuclear-order

Russia’s commitment to the global nuclear order, including nonproliferation, has been questionable since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Russia and the Global Nuclear Order Russia and the Global Nuclear order Russia’s commitment to the global nuclear order, including nonproliferation, has been questionable since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine illuminated the long profound shadow of nuclear weapons over international security. Russia’s nuclear threats have rightfully garnered significant attention because of the unfathomable lethality of nuclear weapons. However, the use of such weapons in Ukraine is only one way—albeit the gravest— that Russia could challenge the global nuclear

Israeli Nuclear Alert of 1973

/reports/2013/israeli-nuclear-alert-of-1973

Rumors of an Israeli nuclear alert in the early days of the 1973 Yom Kippur War have circulated for decades, even making their way into popular culture. The alleged alert has also informed more serious discussions about the use of nuclear weapon during international crises, and one celebrated journalist has gone so far as to assert that the Israelis used the alert to blackmail the United States to intervene aggressively in the war on Israel’s side. But did the alert really happen? In early 2012, CNA received a project award from the Naval Postgraduate School’s Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) to investigate the truth of the reports concerning the alleged alert. PASCC is funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

of the very few serious nuclear “threats” of the nuclear era. This in and of itself makes it a topic of enduring interest. But in light of the continued and perhaps growing salience of nuclear weapons ... from crises and conflicts, it helps elucidate how nuclear weapons can affect and influence the course of politics and war. Yet there has never been a serious, in-depth study of this incident that has ... weapons and/or nuclear weapons delivery forces in the very early stages of the Yom Kippur War, but that these steps were defensive or precautionary in nature and were not designed to send a signal

State Policy of Russia toward Nuclear Deterrence

/reports/2020/06/state-policy-of-russia-toward-nuclear-deterrence

In 2020, the Russian Federation released its “Foundations of State Policy” regarding nuclear deterrence. CNA has produced an informal English translation.

 deterrence, as well as the conditions for the transition of the Russian Federation to the employment of nuclear weapons. Guaranteed deterrence of a potential adversary from aggression against ...  weapons. The state policy of the Russian Federation in the area of nuclear deterrence (hereafter referred to as state policy in the area of nuclear deterrence) is a set of coordinated, unified ... of the escalation of military actions and their cessation on conditions acceptable to the Russian Federation and (or) its allies. The Russian Federation views nuclear weapons exclusively as a means

russian media analysis: Issue 12, March 25, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/russian-media-analysis/issue-12

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

OF UKRAINE: U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS Several articles address U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's decision to cancel a Minuteman III missile test following President Putin's announcement ... of such potential actions by NATO and the U.S.. 7. INVASION OF UKRAINE: UKRAINE AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS CONSPIRACY A recent issue of the Ministry of Defense newspaper posits the conspiracy theory ... on Germany's decision to purchase 35 American F-35A fighter jets to replace the Tornado fighter-bombers it uses to carry American B61 nuclear weapons. white default 1 12 /Newsletters/Russian%20Media

russian media analysis: Issue 3, November 7, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/russian-media-analysis/issue-3

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer regarding the need to deter Russia, including with the use of nuclear weapons. The articles quote Shoigu lamenting Kramp-Karrenbauer’s loss of historical memory of World War 2 ... uselessness of the mission as a diplomatic institution, notes of caution by regime critics about the potential for conflict escalation are also sounded. Russian analysts discuss the US Nuclear Posture Review and deterrence Some of the Russian coverage focuses on deterrence issues, including the ongoing US Nuclear Posture Review process and the challenge of deterrence in hybrid warfare. An October

Deterrence and Influence Navys Role

/reports/2009/deterrence-and-influence-navys-role

Deterrence is one of the primary mechanisms of war prevention, and the rise of a new breed of security challenges since the end of the Cold War requires updated deterrence strategies that combine both kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities, and are designed to influence actors at the earliest phases of the conflict spectrum. Our objective is to analyze how U.S. non-nuclear capabilities can be used to deter conventional aggression, and to examine the role of maritime power in preventing conventional conflicts.

, the possession of nuclear weapons does not provide additional deterrent leverage against states that do not have nuclear (or chemical/biological) weapons. While nuclear weapons may not be a credible threat ... it. Conventional deterrence can also play a role against countries that have nuclear weapons. A nuclear-armed adversary may be emboldened to use conventional force against U.S. friends and allies ... may increase the chances of inter-state crises and conflict. In this environment, U.S. conventional power can play an important role in deterring regional aggression. Compared to U.S. nuclear

russian media analysis: Issue 6, December 16, 2021

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Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

that he would be interested in the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory if US nuclear weapons currently stationed in Germany were moved to Poland. Lukashenka made the statement in a wide-ranging interview to RIA Novosti published in late November in which he also discussed his delay in the initial withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Belarus in the 1990s. Kirill Ryabov writes of the possible positives and negatives of a Russian deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Dmitry Litovkin offers background on the speculation about a potential re- deployment of nuclear weapons

New Report: A New Framework for Managing Nuclear Escalation

/our-media/press-releases/2020/09-16

With less than six months left until the New START arms control treaty expires, the climate of cooperative nuclear risk reduction continues to sour.

. As a result, the risk of U.S. adversaries escalating to the point of using nuclear weapons in a conflict will grow. The United States is underprepared to meet this challenge. In a new CNA report, "Prevailing ... the potential use of nuclear weapons in conflict. "We know the character of the problem — existing research and analysis provide a robust foundation for understanding how nuclear escalation might manifest ... With less than six months left until the New START arms control treaty expires, the climate of cooperative nuclear risk reduction continues to sour. /images/news/PressRelease.png New Report: A New

National Security Seminar March 2023

/reports/2023/06/national-security-seminar-march-2023

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its decision to suspend participation in New START impacts medium to long-term arms control yet arms control is still a valuable tool to advance the US national interests.

. Timothy McDonnell’s recent publication Working with the Adversary: Great Power Cooperation and Nuclear Risk Management . In addition to McDonnell, the event featured Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO and chief US negotiator of the 2010 New START Treaty, and was moderated by Mary Chesnut, a research analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert at CNA. McDonnell began ... National Security Seminar March 2023 Nuclear Cooperation with Strategic Competitors Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its decision to suspend participation in New START impacts medium to long-term

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 6, January 13, 2022

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The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 6, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

stability goes beyond nuclear. Our idea is to expand the subject of the P5 process so we could discuss not only the nuclear issues, but also other issues related to strategic stability, including outer space, missile defense, even AI and other emerging technologies.” Fu delivered the remarks during a briefing to reporters following a joint statement signed by the P5 pledging to avoid a nuclear war ... , the flight of the UAV(s) is controlled by the rear area control system, but the sensors and weapons systems can be operated by the manned aircraft. In the third method of coordination, the manned aircraft