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russian media analysis: Issue 8, January 28, 2022

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Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

and Avoiding Arms Races, and the importance to Russia of the “inadmissibility of any war between nuclear states, whether nuclear or with the use of conventional weapons.” Aleksey Poplavskiy in   Gazeta.ru   offers Russian expert commentary on potential Western reactions to the unlikely placement of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. ( The December 6–16, 2021, issue of   Russian Media Analysis ... requested that NATO hold military exercises in the region in response to the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises. 7. Nuclear risk reduction and potential Western reactions to Belarusian nukes

Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow

/reports/2020/09/prevailing-under-the-nuclear-shadow

The United States has characterized today’s geopolitical environment as a “long-term, strategic competition between nations.” This competition includes renewed emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in international affairs by the nucleararmed competitors of the US—Russia, China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). These adversaries view competition with the US as having a nuclear dimension that is not confined to high-end warfare. Accordingly, the US must anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation during a conflict taking place under the nuclear shadow. The use of nuclear weapons in a war between the US and its allies and Russia, China, or the DPRK would be not only militarily significant, but would also have major political and normative consequences. Yet practical concepts for escalation management are lacking in the post-Cold War, contemporary great power context. To fill that gap, this report proposes foundational elements for a nuclear escalation management framework. This novel framework leverages key concepts from escalation theory and risk management literature to create a structured, analytical process for US policy-makers and planners to evaluate potential courses of action (COAs) that could be employed to achieve favorable escalation management with nucleararmed competitors.

as a “long-term, strategic competition between nations.” This competition includes renewed emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in international affairs by the nucleararmed competitors of the US—Russia, China ... anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation during a conflict taking place under the nuclear shadow. The use of nuclear weapons in a war between the US and its allies and Russia, China, or the DPRK would be not only militarily significant

russian media analysis: Issue 10, February 25, 2022

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Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

for a conflict with Western military support. Ukraine will seek to create nuclear weapons, or potentially get Western assistance to do so. Ukraine joining NATO is just a matter of time. Ukraine ... the Ukrainians and encourage them to fulfill the previously-made [Minsk] agreements and obligations, this can be welcomed.” 10. SIVKOV CAUTIONS US ABOUT NUCLEAR WAR In   VPK,   Russian commentator Konstantin Sivkov extrapolates from what he alleges to have been a statement made by Gen. David Goldfein about “three steps to destroy Russia.” He concludes that a nuclear conflict between the US

Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Key Concepts

/reports/2020/04/russian-strategy-for-escalation-management-key-concepts

This report examines evolving debates within the Russian military on questions of “escalation management,” or intra-war deterrence.

faced with a limited toolkit and largely dependent on nuclear weapons. Over time they came to consider deterrence levels, damage types, and the specific political and military measures that could ... weapons), and conducting single or grouped strikes (with conventional or nuclear weapons). Such measures could be employed in a threatened period to prevent aggression, and in wartime to manage escalation ... periods of reform and military modernization, the toolkit or means that Russian military strategists envisioned also came to evolve, as did their thinking on the mix of nuclear and nonnuclear means

Russian Military Role in US-Russian Arms Control

/reports/2024/03/russian-military-role-in-us-russian-arms-control

Russian nuclear policy and arms control decision-making is influenced by the General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate, military leaders, and bureaucrats.

to engage with their Russian counterparts on nuclear weapons and arms control issues in the future. An attempt to look inside the black box of Moscow's decision-making, the study adds dimensions ... and to limit arms racing. The writings also point to the potential challenges of negotiating numerical limits on all Russian nuclear weapons; evolving discordant perspectives on missile defense; an interest ... Russian Military Role in US-Russian Arms Control The General Staff’s Throw-Weight: The Russian Military’s Role in and Views of US-Russian Arms Control Russian nuclear policy and arms control

ai and autonomy in russia: Issue 43, August 8, 2022

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nuclear drone that Belgorod is best known for is the subject of much speculation, given Russian government statements that it can travel at high speeds at depths of over 1 km. According to many discussions in the Russian and Western analytical community, Poseidon could be hard to detect, and is apparently designed to deliver a sea-based nuclear strike on shore or naval base targets by causing a radioactive tsunami. We reported on the Poseidon in our “AI and Autonomy in Russia” 2021 report as one of the potentially AI-enabled and autonomous weapons in the Russian arsenal, although there is little

ai and autonomy in russia: Issue 45, September 7, 2022

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technologies to support the development of  new weapons systems and special equipment, such as marine robotic complexes, including AI-enabled robotic systems, along with maritime UAVs. Other ... and long-range strike systems. In one, 2S-19 “Msta-S” self-propelled howitzer crews were striking Ukrainian defenses, suppressing command posts, and destroying weapons and military equipment ... MTS products based on the Zyfra IIoT Platform. Facial authentication system under development for Russian nuclear power plant sites The state operator of Russian nuclear power plants, which

russian media analysis: Issue 5, December 5, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/russian-media-analysis/issue-5

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

situation and thoughts about the nature of the NATO threat to Russia. 4. NATO nuclear weapons and US-Russian arms control Numerous articles discuss NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg's November 19 statement about the possibility of NATO placement of nuclear weapons “east of Germany” if the new German government decides to withdraw them. Separately, Aleksandr Yakovenko argues that prospects ... , and Greece). Additional articles address capability and personnel enhancements at NATO and US bases in Europe, including modernization of tactical nuclear weapons and the reactivation of the 56th

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 1, November 2, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/china-ai-and-autonomy-report/issue-1

The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 1, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

, the company developed the military’s first command automation system during the “two bombs, one satellite” program that produced the PRC’s first nuclear weapons, ballistic missile, and satellite ... of weapons, and has swarm and electronic warfare capabilities.” 10 In an apparent comparison to the FH-97, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reports that PRC engineers have assessed that the XQ-58A lacks sufficient aerial combat capabilities and can only withstand 1.7 gs. They note that maneuverability may have been sacrificed for weapons carriage and surveillance capabilities. 11

pla update: Issue 13, August 27, 2023

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PLA Update, Issue 13, is a CNA China Studies Program monthly newsletter, with summaries of Chinese media coverage of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

raised questions among some US scholars about how the PLARF will command and control nuclear weapons delivery platforms assigned to other services, namely PLAN submarines and PLAAF bombers ... to Lead Rocket Force The new PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) leadership comes amid rumors of high-level corruption in the service responsible for China's nuclear arsenal. On July 31, PRC leader Xi ... sweep. Another possibility (which need not be mutually exclusive with the first) is operational-a recognition of the fact that the PLA's nuclear force is no longer solely ground-based. Historically