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Strategic Stability in Outer Space After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

/reports/2023/10/strategic-stability-in-outer-space-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine

Russian invasion’s impact on space is limited, but instability factors are use of civilian satellites, space cyberattacks, sanctions, lack of dialogue with US.

, but instability factors are use of civilian satellites, space cyberattacks, sanctions, lack of dialogue with US. Outer space has always occupied an important place in thinking about nuclear weapons. Be it the development of nuclear forces, arms control efforts, or the concept of strategic stability, the space dimension has been impossible to ignore. Its importance is especially pronounced in the case of the world’s two nuclear superpowers. Space systems are integral to nuclear and conventional capabilities in both the United States and Russia. They support critical functions such as communication

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities Oct 1

/reports/2021/10/russian-perspectives-on-western-military-activities-oct-1

An in-depth analysis of the AUKUS alliance, published in Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, argues that the alliance is part of an ongoing US strategy.

effectiveness in this confrontation was considered worth the risk of serious tensions with France. But given the long timeline for the construction of Australia’s new nuclear submarines, the AUKUS ... the authors do not fully understand. One problem caused by the sale of the nuclear submarines is the precedent it creates for the international non-proliferation regime, since countries such as South Korea and Japan might also seek access to critical nuclear technologies. The author notes that China has already responded by suggesting that it might not retain its policy of no first use of nuclear

pla update: Issue 6, September 30, 2022

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PLA Update, Issue 6, is a CNA China Studies Program monthly newsletter, with summaries of Chinese media coverage of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

to PRC and Russian government spokespersons, this Russian-led exercise featured over 50,000 troops and more than 5,000 weapons and pieces of equipment from 14 countries’ armed forces. These numbers may ... and the sense of mission and honor of the military personnel in China.” WEAPONS TESTS AND EMERGING CAPABILITIES PRC Reports 6th Land-Based Missile Intercept Test Since 2010 The PRC Defense ... an adversary’s first strike and protect China’s nuclear deterrent capability. An unnamed military expert speaking to the Global Times said the successful sixth test underscored the growing

Kevin Pollpeter-Testimony

/reports/2023/05/kevin-pollpeter-testimony

Kevin Pollpeter, Senior Research Scientist, China Studies, CNA. Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Hearing on "China’s Pursuit of Defense Technologies: Implications for US and Multilateral Export Control and Investment Screening Regimes" PRC Space and Missile Capabilities

an air-launched version of the YJ-83, as well as the YJ-12, which can deliver a 500 kg warhead at speeds up to Mach 3 and a range of 300 km. China has also deployed hypersonic weapons that can travel ... . Although “primarily a conventional platform,” the DF-17 “may be equipped with nuclear warheads.” In July 2021, the PLA tested a hypersonic glide vehicle and an orbital bombardment system that the Defense Department assesses is probably intended to become an advanced nuclear delivery system. The PLA’s missile inventory presents several challenges to the US military (see Table 2). The most common US

AI and Autonomy Opportunities and Challenges

/reports/2017/ai-and-autonomy-opportunities-and-challenges

The military is on the cusp of a major technological revolution, in which warfare is conducted by unmanned and increasingly autonomous weapon systems. This exploratory study considers the state-of-the-art of artificial intelligence (AI), machine- learning, and robot technologies, and their potential future military implications for autonomous (and semi-autonomous) weapon systems. Although no one can predict how AI will evolve or how it will affect the development of military autonomous systems, we can anticipate many of the conceptual, technical, and operational challenges that DOD will face as it increasingly turns to AI-based technologies. We identified four key gaps facing DOD as the military evolves toward an “autonomy era”: (1) a mismatch of timescales between the pace of commercial innovation and DOD’s acquisition process; (2) an underappreciation of the fundamental unpredictability of autonomous systems; (3) a lack of a universally agreed upon conceptual framework for autonomy; and (4) a disconnect between the design of autonomous systems and CONOPS development. We examine these gaps, provide a roadmap of opportunities and challenges, and identify areas of future studies.

examine these gaps, provide a roadmap of opportunities and challenges, and identify areas of future studies. The history of warfare, in general, and the evolution of weapons, in particular, are both ... deeper connection between the development of technology and weapons systems has been forged by national offset strategies. An offset strategy is a general set of peacetime policies designed to mitigate ... status” with respect to nuclear weapon technology and delivery systems, strategic thinking turned to regaining a non-nuclear tactical advantage. Rapidly growing innovations in digital

intersections: Issue 3, March 2023

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Intersections, Issue 3, CNA news digest of China’s efforts to acquire Western technology, U.S. and partner efforts to protect technology for national security.

and manufacturing of space launch and ballistic missile systems. US chips used in PRC nuclear weapons research, despite export controls. According to a January 2023 article in The Wall Street Journal ... nuclear weapons research institute and notes that CAEP was placed on the US Entity List in 1997. The article states that the types of chips procured by CAEP are difficult for the PRC to mass-produce

Insights for the Third Offset

/reports/2017/insights-for-the-third-offset

CNA conducts analysis for the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense (DOD), and other sponsors, ranging across policy, strategy, organizational processes, technical performance of military systems, and current operations. Because of the expected impact of autonomy and artificial intelligence (AI) to the character of warfare, CNA has created a Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence to focus on these emerging technologies and their significant role in U.S. defense policy and all the military services. The Center combines CNA’s strengths and experience in conducting objective analysis of U.S. military operations with focused expertise in autonomy and other aspects of AI. This report, the first created by the new Center, takes lessons and insights from CNA’s body of work for the Navy and the joint force, including CNA’s field program of embedded analysts in military commands around the world. Though much of the emerging technology examined in this report is new, the approach of applying lessons from U.S. operations and institutional processes to key challenges in leveraging autonomy and AI continues CNA’S applied research paradigm of exploring many opportunities to resolve or work around challenges that have been seen before. The aim of this report is to anticipate challenges of “Third Offset” implementation based on past lessons, and then provide concrete recommendations for promoting the effective incorporation of autonomy, AI, and related technologies in U.S. military operations. This report discusses making autonomy and AI militarily effective from an acquisition and technology perspective, and how to pursue these capabilities in ways that are consistent with long-standing U.S. values and that promote broader U.S. national interests.

has led to fundamental changes in the character of war and the tools used in its conduct. Examples include the development of the crossbow; gunpowder-powered projectile weapons; chemical weapons in World War I; rockets, jet aircraft, and nuclear warheads in World War II; and stealth, unmanned vehicles, and precision-guided munitions in recent decades. Military operations are poised ... on such weapons, citing concerns about civilian casualties, the difficulties of machines complying with international humanitarian law (IHL), and other ethical considerations. Likewise, U.S. operators

intersections: Issue 8, February 2024

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Intersections, Issue 8, CNA news digest of China’s efforts to acquire Western technology, U.S. and partner efforts to protect technology for national security.

to be seen as independent from its traditional US, UK, and Australian partners. New Zealand banned nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered vessels from its territory in the mid-1980s in solidarity with Pacific Islands nations subjected to nuclear tests in the region and in compliance with the Treaty of Rarotonga. New Zealand's policy effectively barred US Navy vessels from New Zealand's ports and led ... (see box below) since March 2023, including the following: The graduation of the first class of Royal Australian Navy officers from the US Nuclear Power School The first group of Australian

ai and autonomy in russia: Issue 40, June 15, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/ai-and-autonomy-in-russia/issue-40

defense manufacturers were running out of key microchip and semiconductor components, forcing the extraction of strictly civilian microelectronics products for use in different weapons systems ... organizations, transport, telecommunications, banking, nuclear energy, fuel and energy complex, healthcare, science, metallurgy, defense, rocket and space and chemical industries, and other key sectors ... ”, Wikipedia Commons, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_S-70_Okhotnik-B . Okhotnik UCAV is getting additional weapons and testing When it was publicly flown with a Su-57 aircraft back in 2019

pla update: Issue 12, July 17, 2023

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PLA Update, Issue 12, is a CNA China Studies Program monthly newsletter, with summaries of Chinese media coverage of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

that included firing the ship's main and auxiliary guns and shooting light weapons in simulated counterterrorism and counterpiracy scenarios. The port visits in Southeast Asian countries included ... face nuclear coercion from one or more powers. The article claimed that the NMS's portrayal of armed conflict aligns with the NSS and NDS and that this line of thinking would guide US military force ... that the US military believed the effectiveness of deterrence in an era of great power confrontation depended on a reliable and effective nuclear deterrent. The article said it was noteworthy that near