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The U.S. is Close to a Deal with the Taliban: What’s Next?

/our-media/indepth/2020/02/the-us-is-close-to-a-deal-with-the-taliban-whats-next

Last Friday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Twitter that the United States had officially "come to an understanding with the Taliban on a significant reduction in violence across Afghanistan."

ceasefire of 2018 demonstrated the ability of Taliban leaders to control their fighters, while detractors have pointed to rifts between the political and military councils of the group’s leadership ... , Ashraf Ghani, by just 0.6 points more than the 50 percent vote tally he needed to secure a first-round victory. But voter turnout was the lowest in Afghanistan’s history. About two million votes ... , sustained actions in order to translate the words of a deal into lasting change on the ground. Rubin writes that “an annex [to the deal] establishes a center where the U.S. military and Taliban

Weighing the Costs of War and Peace in Afghanistan

/our-media/indepth/2019/04/weighing-the-costs-of-war-and-peace-in-afghanistan

The U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad, tweeted that "peace requires agreement on four issues: counter-terrorism assurances, troop withdrawal."

  repeating its history from Vietnam  by looking for a " decent interval " between the end of the war and the inevitable collapse of the government in Kabul. There are many reasons for all ... and economic. The number of personnel from the United States and its coalition partners being killed in the war these days is relatively small (e.g., the  total number  of U.S. military and Defense ... in operating costs for the U.S. military, $750 million in economic aid, and a host of other categories of spending such as logistics and sustainment. This does not include the costs borne by the rest

ai with ai: All Good Things

/our-media/podcasts/ai-with-ai/season-6/6-8

For the final (for now?) episode of AI with AI, Andy and Dave discuss the latest in AI news and research, including a political declaration from the US Department of State on the responsible military use of AI and autonomy. NATO begins work on an AI certification standard. The IEEE introduces a new program that provides free access to AI ethics and governance standards. Reported in February, but performed in December, A joint Dept of Defense team performed 12 flight tests (over 17 hours) in which AI agents piloted Lockheed Martin’s X-62A VISTA, an F-16 variant. Andy provides a run-down of a large number of recent ChatGPT-related stories. Wolfram “explains” how ChatGPT works. Paul Scharre publishes Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of AI. And to come full circle, we began this podcast 6 years ago with the story of AlphaGo beating the world champion. So we close the podcast with news that a non-professional Go player, Kellin Pelrine, beat a top AI system 14 games to one having discovered a ‘not super-difficult method for humans to beat the machines. A heartfelt thanks to you all for listening over the years!

military use of AI and autonomy. NATO begins work on an AI certification standard. The IEEE introduces a new program that provides free access to AI ethics and governance standards. Reported in February ... Good Things Announcements / News U.S. Dept. of State Releases Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of AI and Autonomy What does this all mean? Video – REAIM 2023 REAIM 2023 ... : Press Release DARPA: Press Release Video Breaking Defense: Additional details and history of VISTA ChatGPT is here to stay, Microsoft and Google join the Fray, and it’s Getting Scary

What is a Chinese Communist Party Plenum?

/our-media/indepth/2024/06/what-is-a-chinese-communist-party-plenum

Plenums of the Central Committee help assess future directions for China. The Third Plenum on economic issues is of critical interest for US national security.

 is an accessible book I have previously used to teach undergraduates. If you want a fuller history that examines both the Maoist Period and the Reform Era, then Lieberthal’s Governing China remains ... that be necessary. Because of the prominent role that China now plays in US national security, promoting peacetime national security interests means more than monitoring China’s military modernization

The AUKUS Submarine Agreement

/our-media/indepth/2021/09/aukus-submarine-agreement

President Biden announced the creation of a new trilateral defense partnership to develop a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom, called AUKUS.

is to develop a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia through the sharing of U.S. technology. While not specifically called out by name during the announcement, China’s increasing military power ... . Two days after AUKUS was announced, France recalled its ambassadors to the United States and Australia for the first time in its diplomatic history with the two countries. French Foreign Minister

China, Malaysia and the South China Sea

/our-media/indepth/2021/07/china-malaysia-and-the-south-china-sea

On June 1, the Royal Malaysian Air Force announced that 16 People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft, flying in “tactical formation,” had entered Malaysia's Flight Information Region.

toward China in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia has a history of bureaucratic disjointedness on the South China Sea issue, and because Malaysia’s foreign ministry objected only after the Air Force released ... , it is unclear how long Kuala Lumpur can continue to strike this balance. If Chinese military and paramilitary activities within Malaysia’s claimed Exclusive Economic Zone continue to increase, Kuala Lumpur may

A Better Approach to Containing Domestic Violent Extremism

/our-media/indepth/2021/07/containing-domestic-violent-extremism

After 20 years of intense focus on jihadist terrorism, U.S. policymakers have raised domestic violent extremism to the top of the counterterrorism agenda.

. And today we appear to be entering a new wave of white-supremacist and anti-state violence. If history is any guide, terrorist groups can be dismantled and perpetrators put behind bars, but terrorism itself ... is the greatly diminished capacity of groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State to mount or even inspire large-scale attacks against American targets after two decades of relentless U.S. military

Global Issues Beckon Japan’s New Prime Minister

/our-media/indepth/2020/10/global-issues-beckon-japans-new-prime-minister

When Yoshihide Suga succeeded Shinzo Abe as Japan’s prime minister on September 14, many observers anticipated a shift in the government’s focus. Will Suga be pulled in two directions?

in Japanese history — has proven Suga incomparable when it comes to managing and deftly orchestrating the vast and powerful Japanese bureaucracy. Suga has already signaled his reform agenda. His initial ... threats emanating from North Korea and increasing Chinese military incursions into Japanese national airspace and territorial waters. Compounding these challenges is the strategic distrust between

Washington Takes a Stand in the South China Sea

/our-media/indepth/2020/09/washington-takes-a-stand-in-the-south-china-sea

In 2020, a senior U.S. government official used blunt language to publicly accuse Beijing of making unlawful maritime claims, and Washington finally began punishing companies that assist in China’s illegal island building.

several major projects related to maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas and China's ambition to become a "great" maritime power. This summer was a very important period in the history ... possess no territorial sea or EEZ. A fourth objective was to adopt as its own the Obama administration’s hard line against military base development on Scarborough Shoal. In early 2016, Scarborough

ai with ai: D.E.R.Y.L.

/our-media/podcasts/ai-with-ai/season-4/4-18

In news, Andy and Dave discuss a machine learning algorithm from Synergies Intelligent System and Universität Hamburg that can identify people in a moving crowd who are mostly likely asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19. US lawmakers have introduced the Public Health Emergency Privacy Act, to boost privacy protections for COVID-19 technology such as tracing apps and vaccine scheduling apps. A team led by researchers from Oxford have introduced new reporting guidelines to bridge a gap in development to implementation when using clinical AI technologies, dubbed DECIDE-AI. Over 30 authors from a wide swath of organizations have proposed a “living benchmark” to evaluate progress in natural language generation, which they call GEM (Generation, Evaluation, and Metrics). And the combination we saw coming, research from Queen Mary University demonstrate a deep learning framework for detection of emotion using wireless signals. Researchers at the University of Virginia claim to detect physiological responses to racial bias with 76.1% accuracy, though it more focuses on exploring any link between mental associations of skin color. In research, Stanford researchers explore how learning and evolution occur in complex environments, and how they affect the diversity of morphological forms, with DERL (Deep Evolutionary Reinforcement Learning). Researchers from University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, introduce GANs for editing images via their latent space, which provides greater control over editing (e.g., editing a mouth without re-generating the entire face). And in the video of the week, a 12-minute video provides a short history on DARPA with highlights on many of its military robot programs. Listener Survey

of the week, a 12-minute video provides a short history on DARPA with highlights on many of its military robot programs. Listener Survey /images/AI-Posters/AI_4_18.jpg D.E.R.Y.L. Announcements / News