Independent Assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces

The 2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Section 1215, directs: “The Secretary of Defense shall provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the strength, force structure, force posture, and capabilities required to make the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) capable of providing security for their own country so as to prevent Afghanistan from ever again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threaten Afghanistan, the region, and the world.” The Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) asked CNA to make this independent assessment. The Under Secretary also requested CNA make several additional assessments of related issues.

NDAA mandated assessment

The NDAA mandates that the independent assessment of the ANSF should address the following matters, which this report does:

• The likely internal and regional security environment for Afghanistan over the next decade, including challenges and threats to the security and sovereignty of Afghanistan from state and non-state actors.
• The strength, force structure, force posture, and capabilities required to make the ANSF capable of providing security for their own country so as to prevent Afghanistan from ever again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threaten Afghanistan, the region, and the world.
• Any capability gaps in the ANSF that are likely to persist after 2014 and that will require continued support from the United States (U.S.) and its allies.
• Whether current proposals for the resourcing of the ANSF after 2014 are adequate to establish and maintain long-term security for the Afghan people, and implications for U.S. national security interests of the under-resourcing of the ANSF.