The Future of Corrections: Emerging Technologies

Overview

The CNA Center for Justice Research and Innovation’s Project on American Justice (PAJ) for 2024 focuses on the future of corrections based on current research and trends. To support this effort, CNA is working with several leading subject matter experts (SMEs) and senior advisors with research and practitioner experience in the corrections field.

In March 2024, PAJ launched its first of several “fireside chats” with these experts to discuss the effects of emerging technologies. Specifically, PAJ used a futures analysis framework to examine the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP) factors that may influence corrections and the criminal justice system in the future. With the framework, the PAJ team aimed to identify opportunities to mitigate risks and promote success.

To support this analysis, the PAJ team identified several overarching STEEP factors based on research and current trends. Social factors include Generation Y and the aging population; urbanization through megacities, regions, and corridors; and expanding diversity. Technological factors include the growth in applied artificial intelligence (AI), use of robotics, and adoption of automated vehicles. Economic factors include increases in the US national debt and expansion of wealth inequality. Environmental factors include climate action failure and bursts in eco-migration and climate refugees. Political factors include balkanization and a shift in global superpowers. Using the STEEP factors, the PAJ team created the following 2040 future scenario:

In 2040, the number of adults outnumbers the number of children for the first time in US history, and urbanized megapolitan areas exist nationwide, including mega areas Phoenix-Tucson, Columbus-Cincinnati, Tampa-Orlando, and Washington-Baltimore-Richmond. In these areas and throughout the country, AI is commonplace. Automated vehicles traverse streets, and robots are replacing the workforce. However, the US national debt has reached historic highs, limiting our government’s ability to invest in new priorities. Economic instability and climate action failure have increased tensions between states, and there is no longer any faith in local and federal governments. Globally, the US has lost its place as the top superpower and has been surpassed by China, while the number of foreign-born individuals in the US is at a historic high and created a nationally diverse populace where no racial majority exists.

Using this future-state scenario as a starting point, the PAJ team identified potential risks and opportunities regarding emerging technologies, as well as steps to take now to mitigate those risks and promote successes. A summary of the discussion continues in the following sections.