In The News

Michael Kofman writes, This is not Ukraine’s only remaining opportunity to liberate a substantial amount of territory and inflict a major defeat on Russian forces, but the upcoming offensive may be the moment when available Western military equipment, training, and ammunition best intersect with the forces set aside by Ukraine for this operation.

Michael Kofman says, “Most of the equipment they typically roll through the square was not on display. I think they cut most of the parade short to avoid the risk, and the time during which leadership would be exposed.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The minister of defense cannot afford to have the Wagner forces to leave their position in Bakhmut, to withdraw and essentially hand the Ukrainians a military as well as a public relations victory.”

Michael Kofman says, “Back in January, Russia launched the winter offensive. It was pretty ill-conceived and not well-timed. The Russian forces were not well-positioned to conduct a major set of offensive operations.”

Michael Kofman says that too much was being made of the Kinzhal and that it was not particularly different from other ballistic missiles. The Kinzhal is a variant of Russia’s Iskander-M.

Samuel Bendett says, “There is a need in Ukraine to provide kamikaze quadcopter capability and delivery beyond the technical specifications of these small drones.”

Samuel Bendett says, “If it was a Ukrainian drone strike, it demonstrated to the Russian military and the Russian government that Ukraine can strike into the very heart of Russia.”

Samuel Bendett says, “This attack carries massive symbolism since May 9 parade is supposed to still take place on Red Square.”

Elizabeth Wishnick says that Central Asia “is not just a land of opportunity, this is an area of risk.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says that throughout the post-Cold War period, Russia's naval focus has been on developing submarines and new capabilities for the underwater vessels, whereas Moscow has largely lost its ability to construct new, large surface vessels.

Michael Kofman says that Ukraine's military "has now expanded significantly, but it's also taken significant losses over the course of the past year."

Jonathan Schroden says that he has not seen any public evidence to back up Kirby’s argument that the U.S. military’s “Over-the-Horizon capabilities” in Afghanistan have gotten much better since American troops left the country.

Steven Wills writes, “The stark fact remains that the only ‘ready’ ships in the fleet are those on deployment and those enroute to relieve them. Actual surge capacity is extremely low. For the 1990–91 Desert Shield/Desert Storm mission, five aircraft carriers were surged while two others on deployment were allowed to return home as scheduled.”

Elizabeth Wishnick said in an email: “I wonder if Xi’s call was set up quickly to deflect attention” from the uproar over the Chinese ambassador’s remarks.

Michael Kofman says that Wagner has still been working closely with Russia's regular forces, with its ground forces deployed in tandem with Russian air support and artillery.

Samuel Bendett says, “The main point here is that the Ukrainians are continuing to stress Russian naval defenses in Sevastopol. Russians had to invest a lot in physical defenses like multiple layers of netting and buoys.“