Characteristics of Active Component Accessions
Geography

Chapter 2

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The percentages of recruits from some census regions of the United States have remained fairly stable since the inception of the volunteer force.  However, as Figure 2.10 illustrates, in other regions some substantial shifts have taken place.  The percentage of accessions from the Northeast dropped 8 points from a high of 22 percent in FY 1977 to a low of 14 percent in FY 1989.  Today, 15 percent of enlisted recruits are Northeasterners.  The proportion of accessions from the South increased 9 percentage points from 34 percent in FY 1985 to 43 percent in FY 1995.  In FY 1999, 43 percent of new recruits were from the South.

Changes in geographical representation are related to factors such as shifts in demographic patterns, unemployment, college enrollment, and employment compensation rates, which vary widely across regions of the country. [1]   Obviously, no one factor can explain variations in enlistment rates between different sections of the country; they are more likely attributable to a wide array of economic, social, and demographic factors.

Table 2.10 presents FY 1999 accession statistics by geographic region, division, and state. The third and fourth columns show percentages of accessions and percentages of the 18- to 24-year-old civilian population, respectively, in each area. The fifth column presents military/civilian representation ratios—the percentage of enlisted accessions divided by the percentage of civilians in each area. A representation ratio of 1.00 means that the area has the same proportion of accessions as of the youth population—for example, 8 percent of all recruits and 8 percent of all youth aged 18–24. A ratio of less than 1.00 means that relatively few youth in an area enlist in the military, while a ratio of more than 1.00 indicates above-average market penetration.  The last two columns of the table present the percentages of high-quality accessions (high school graduates in AFQT Categories I–IIIA) and mean AFQT scores for each area.


Figure 2.10.  NPS accessions by geographic region, FYs 1973–1999.

The South region had the greatest ratio of enlistees (1.2).  The South Atlantic and West South Central divisions had the strongest representation (1.3 each).  The Northeast and North Central regions had representation ratios of 0.8 and the West region had a representation ratio of 1.0.

Slightly more than half of the states had representation ratios of 1.0 or more.  These included:  Maine and New Hampshire in the Northeast; Missouri and North and South Dakota in the North Central; all states except Utah and California in the West; and all states except Kentucky and the District of Columbia in the South.  Among all states and the District of Columbia, the ratios ranged from a low of 0.6 in Massachusetts, Minnesota, the District of Columbia, and Utah to a high of 1.6 in Maine, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.

The sixth column of Table 2.10 shows the proportion of high-quality accessions by geographical area.  There were only minor differences by region in FY 1999.  The proportion of high-quality accessions by region ranged from a low of 55 percent in the South to a high of 61 percent in the North Central region.  Differences across divisions were somewhat larger.  Nearly 9 percentage points separated the East South Central and West North Central divisions.  Differences at the state level were still larger, ranging from 43 percent in the District of Columbia to 73 percent in North Dakota.

CENSUS
REGION
Census Division
State

Area's
Contribution
of All NPS
Accessions

Area's
Percent
of All NPS
Accessions

Area's
Percent
of All 18- to 24-Year-Olds

Represen-
tation
Ratio

Percent of
High-Quality
Accessions*

Mean
AFQT
Percentile
Score

NORTHEAST REGION

27,568

15.2

18.1

0.8

58.6

59.1

New England Division

6,297

3.5

4.3

0.8

61.6

60.4

Maine

1,100

0.6

0.4

1.6

63.1

61.0

New Hampshire

772

0.4

0.3

1.2

68.9

64.0

Vermont

319

0.2

0.2

0.9

69.6

64.4

Massachusetts

2,297

1.3

2.2

0.6

59.9

59.8

Rhode Island

509

0.3

0.3

0.9

55.4

57.6

Connecticut

1,300

0.7

0.9

0.8

59.3

59.0

             

Middle Atlantic Division

21,271

11.7

13.8

0.8

57.8

58.7

 New York

10,104

5.6

6.6

0.8

56.0

58.3

 New Jersey

3,945

2.2

2.9

0.7

56.2

57.3

 Pennsylvania

7,222

4.0

4.3

0.9

61.1

59.9

NORTH CENTRAL REGION

35,396

19.5

23.4

0.8

60.5

60.4

             

East North Central Division

24,458

13.5

16.4

0.8

59.8

60.0

 Ohio

6,829

3.8

4.2

0.9

59.8

59.8

 Indiana

3,350

1.8

2.0

0.9

64.6

62.0

 Illinois

6,872

3.8

4.4

0.9

56.0

58.6

 Michigan

5,008

2.8

3.8

0.7

59.1

59.4

 Wisconsin

2,399

1.3

1.9

0.7

65.5

63.2

             

West North Central Division

10,938

6.0

7.1

0.9

62.0

61.3

 Minnesota

1,908

1.1

1.7

0.6

64.6

62.6

 Iowa

1,468

0.8

1.1

0.7

66.0

63.1

 Missouri

3,822

2.1

2.0

1.0

57.9

59.1

 North Dakota

411

0.2

0.2

1.0

73.2

64.6

 South Dakota

592

0.3

0.3

1.0

67.9

62.9

 Nebraska

1,111

0.6

0.7

0.9

62.3

62.7

 Kansas

1,626

0.9

1.0

0.9

60.2

61.0

SOUTH REGION

77,201

42.6

34.8

1.2

55.2

57.5

 

           

South Atlantic Division

38,008

21.0

16.8

1.3

54.8

57.4

 Delaware

461

0.3

0.3

1.0

59.4

59.1

 Maryland

3,693

2.0

1.5

1.4

56.9

58.1

 District of Columbia

254

0.1

0.2

0.6

42.9

52.0

 Virginia

5,733

3.2

2.2

1.5

55.3

58.2

 West Virginia

1,618

0.9

0.7

1.3

54.5

57.1

 North Carolina

5,085

2.8

2.7

1.0

54.8

57.4

 South Carolina

3,635

2.0

1.3

1.5

51.4

55.4

 Georgia

6,073

3.4

2.7

1.2

52.7

56.2

 Florida

11,456

6.3

5.2

1.2

56.1

58.3

             

East South Central Division

11,727

6.5

6.0

1.1

53.2

56.7

 Kentucky

2,376

1.3

1.4

0.9

57.0

57.7

 Tennessee

3,224

1.8

1.8

1.0

57.1

59.3

 Alabama

3,898

2.2

1.7

1.3

51.0

55.8

 Mississippi

2,229

1.2

1.1

1.1

47.6

53.4

             

West South Central Division

27,466

15.2

12.0

1.3

56.6

57.9

 Arkansas

2,207

1.2

1.0

1.2

51.9

56.4

 Louisiana

3,923

2.2

1.9

1.1

51.8

54.3

 Oklahoma

3,286

1.8

1.1

1.6

57.0

58.4

 Texas

18,050

10.0

8.0

1.3

58.1

58.8

 

WEST REGION

41,012

22.6

23.6

1.0

58.8

59.5

             

Mountain Division

13,215

7.3

6.9

1.1

60.4

61.0

 Montana

1,037

0.6

0.4

1.5

63.7

62.6

 Idaho

1,145

0.6

0.5

1.2

63.6

63.5

 Wyoming

534

0.3

0.2

1.6

58.8

61.9

 Colorado

2,683

1.5

1.4

1.0

60.3

61.9

 New Mexico

1,732

1.0

0.6

1.5

57.0

58.0

 Arizona

3,523

1.9

2.0

1.0

60.1

60.0

 Utah

1,130

0.6

1.1

0.6

61.9

62.7

 Nevada

1,431

0.8

0.6

1.3

59.4

60.4

             

Pacific Division

27,797

15.3

16.7

0.9

58.1

58.8

 Washington

3,899

2.2

2.1

1.0

62.3

63.3

 Oregon

2,366

1.3

1.3

1.0

65.4

63.2

 California

20,048

11.1

12.7

0.9

56.5

57.6

 Alaska

550

0.3

0.2

1.5

59.6

61.5

 Hawaii

934

0.5

0.4

1.2

54.6

55.3

Total (50 STATES + D.C.)

181,177**

100.0

100.0

1.0

57.6

58.8

Columns may not add to total due to rounding.
* High-quality accessions are high school graduates who score at or above the 50th percentile on the AFQT.  This column is the number of high-quality accessions in area divided by the total number of accessions in area.
** Does not include 2,591 recruits from the territories and unknowns.
Source: Civilian data from Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey File, October 1998 – September 1999.

The last column of Table 2.10 shows the mean AFQT score by each geographical area.  Occasionally interest has been expressed in using AFQT scores as an indicator of the performance of state educational systems.  AFQT statistics are not particularly suitable for this purpose for several reasons.  As a sample of youth in a state, ASVAB test-takers reflect a number of selection biases, the total effect of which is unknown.  Those who take the test as part of the enlistment process exclude many students who intend to enroll in college, prospects who fail the enlistment screening test, and youth who do not have an interest in military enlistment.  Therefore, youth who take the ASVAB should not be presumed to be representative of the communities or school systems from which they are drawn.  Even without the biases, it would be difficult to determine how much the test scores reflect differences in school performance from state to state, or how much they reflect other state characteristics, such as social composition and economic conditions.  In sum, while the ASVAB is an excellent instrument for the purposes for which it was designed, it does not provide valid state-by-state school performance data.

Nevertheless, AFQT scores by state may be of interest for purposes other than assessing school system performance.  The AFQT figures in Table 2.10 reflect the mean AFQT percentile scores for accessions in each state.  Percentiles displayed in Table 2.10 are all above 50 because low-scoring applicants are screened out.


[1] Kostiuk, P.F., Geographic Variations in Recruiting Market Conditions (Alexandria, VA:  Center for Naval Analyses, 1989).


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